Question 1

Is this Hedjee’s forecast?

Accepted Answer

Yes. The future line uses Hedjee’s production model 2.0.0, with a forecast origin of September 4, 2026. Historical prices come from EIA’s weekly retail survey. The future line is not the EIA monthly outlook.

Question 2

What does the line estimate?

Accepted Answer

Each point is the model’s median (q50) regional retail diesel estimate for the dated week, in dollars per gallon. It is not a calendar-month average, a purchase quote or a promised price. Your discounts, routes and contracts can differ from the regional benchmark.

Question 3

What does the model range mean?

Accepted Answer

The shaded band joins the model’s published weekly q10 and q90 outputs around its median. The selected week’s bounds are labeled on the graph. All values share one linear price scale, including wide ranges and any zero lower bounds. These outputs do not guarantee prices will remain inside the range; regional coverage has not been established here.

Question 4

How accurate is this model?

Accepted Answer

The approved model’s paired historical validation reports mean absolute error (MAE) of 13.6¢/gal at 1 week, 20.1¢/gal at 4 weeks, 33.1¢/gal at 8 weeks, 42.3¢/gal at 13 weeks, 46.6¢/gal at 26 weeks. These are pooled scores across all six model series, before website curve smoothing, from a 2020–June 2026 frozen-snapshot walk-forward test. They are not separate regional scores or a live forecast track record. The brief beneath the chart follows your selected horizon; its detail identifies the matched retired-publisher comparison and source.

Question 5

How current is the forecast?

Accepted Answer

This page uses the versioned September 4, 2026 model snapshot, covering 26 weeks from that origin. It is not a live market feed. The observed price has its own EIA survey date, shown above.

Question 6

Which regions can I choose?

Accepted Answer

The internal snapshot contains the five full PADD regions: East Coast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain and West Coast. It does not provide separate California or West Coast excluding California forecasts.

Diesel price forecast

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